Category Archives: Fluvanna County

Fluvanna Proposed FY19 Budget has $400K Deficit

By. Bryan Rothamel, Field Officer

The needle has slipped across the record known as the FY19 Fluvanna County budget.image

County administrator Steve Nichols briefed the Board of Supervisors on April 4th on updated numbers. The big shocker was the health insurance quote for next year is an increase of $435,000. There were some additional revenue numbers that meant at $0.929 real estate tax rate, the supervisors will still be $400,000 in the hole.

There were four tentative nods at $0.929 but unless the supervisors cut personnel or the school budget, they will need an even bigger increase.

At the public hearing on the tax rates, capital improvement plans and budget, one person spoke. Perrie Johnson, School Board member, spoke as a resident. She spoke in favor of funding the schools.

Since the last meeting in March, the county found another $68,000 in tax revenue. The expenditures grew as the supervisors approved a new pay raise policy that added another $32,000 to the budget.

The new policy is employees will receive any pay raise as long as they are on-board six months before the start of the raise and off probation period. The previous policy was must be on board before the start of the fiscal year and not receive a pay increase in the fiscal year the raise is given.

The vote to set the new policy was unanimous however supervisors were uncommitted to budget. They are slated to approve a budget on April 11.

Eager2016Cropped

Patricia Eager

Patricia Eager (Palmyra District) ask if the board desires to pull more from the county savings, the fund balance. “You don’t want to go too far down that road,” replied Tony O’Brien (Rivanna District).

That leaves either cutting expenses or raising the tax rate. Per state code, the highest rate the supervisors can institute is $0.945 [The rate advertised for public hearing].

One issue the county doesn’t project is significant new tax revenue coming in immediately to help next year’s budget. Expenses aren’t getting cheaper considering the vast majority of the county’s budget.

The silver lining is this year the county had two new debt service payments starting for FY19 that equated six cents. There is no expected debt payments to start in FY20 but also no significant debt retirements.

“We shouldn’t have the problems we are looking at this year,” said O’Brien.

There is hope the county will get a lower number for the health insurance increase. The issue is the county has had several high claims and have only been with the insurer for a single year.

The supervisors next meet on April 11 at 6 p.m to adopt a final budget. The budget calendar does have a possible overtime week of April 18.

The Free Enterprise Forum’s coverage of Fluvanna County is provided by a grant from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS® and by the support of readers like you.

Bryan Rothamel covers Fluvanna County for the Free Enterprise Forum

Photo Credits: Fluvanna County

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Fluvanna Budget Discussion Includes New Business

By. Bryan Rothamel, Field Officer

It takes three to tango during budget season and the Fluvanna County  Board of Supervisors is working its way to a final budget number.  During the latest work session the supervisors left with four nods on stopping at a real estate tax rate of $0.929 per $100 assessed. The current rate is $0.907.

The supervisors got a boost by additional tax values and increasing fees for items like trailers.

But to get to $0.929 and fund the schools its full request of $600,000, the supervisors will pull money from the county’s savings, the fund balance. It is a practice that is highly discouraged because the fund balance is typically used for one time expenses. But school staff is confident the school system will return a few hundred thousand to the fund balance when the current fiscal year is complete.

At the end of the March 28 work session, only Don Weaver (Cunningham District) didn’t give a nod to the budget but he said he would think about it.

Supervisors will have a public hearing on the budget on April 4 at 7 p.m.

Also on March 28 the supervisors held two public hearings on industrial sites in the Zion Crossroads area.

The first hearing was for the old Cosner Brothers location. M&M Salvage owns the property and trying to rezone the front part to I-1 and the back portion to I-2.

The property currently has a zoning violation issued against it for non-conforming use. The property is being used by contractors for the Colonial Gas Pipeline, per the owner. County staff has ruled it is being used as a contractor’s yard, which is a by-right use for an industrially zone property but the property is currently zoned A-1.

“I think you are able to consider this [a violation],” said Fred Payne, county attorney, to the supervisors.

Next to the property is a small cluster subdivision, Fox Glen. Residents continually complain to staff of work consistent with a contractor’s yard.

“People are entitled to the quiet enjoyment of their property and it is being interrupted,” said Charles Hess, who lives in the subdivision.

Residents have complained of the loud noises and lights used to work early in the morning and evenings. One complaint listed a 1 a.m. start time.

“This I-1 and I-2 use next to the residential is less than ideal,” said Tony O’Brien (Rivanna District).

Supervisors denied the rezoning 5-0. The owner filed an appeal of the non-conforming use to the Board of Zoning Appeals. BZA will hear the case on May 15.

LKQ is coming to town thanks to approval of its special use permit, 5-0. The supervisors added provisions to increase buffer areas near residents and restrictions on hours of operation.

The property was previously rezoned, at the direction of the Board of Supervisors, in December. The property is located behind the Cosner Brothers property and was once the back half of Cosner. It is 90 acres.

Residents of Fox Glen aren’t exactly touching it but the subdivision is about 200-300 feet from the property line. LKQ offered to increase its buffer from 50 feet from property line to 75 feet. The company will build an eight-foot fence and plant trees.

LKQ is a salvage yard company that recycles parts mostly from totaled cars. The company buys cars wholesale then goes through the cars to sell parts to repair cars.

The company will fill the property with stripped cars and once it needs more space, it crushes cars. Supervisors put restrictions on hours the company can work in yard to pull parts. Restrictions were also placed on crushing cars to six days a week. Work inside the building have no restrictions.

“This is a very clean facility,” said resident William Hensley, who toured a similar LKQ facility.

LKQ is expected to pay $200,000 to $300,000 in taxes. A penny of real estate taxes is less than $300,000.

“I would love to keep Fluvanna green,” said resident Tom Payne. “But we are going to have to keep Fluvanna with another green (money).”

Some neighbors still were not pleased of the salvage yard coming to town.

“Would you like your daughter or son or grandkids to live there?” said Jeff Wagner.

Katie Ward, said she purchased the neighboring property months after Fluvanna started negotiations with LKQ, “We were robbed to have our voices heard.”

Ward distributed flyers before the meeting of a FOIA request she had that showed the county in discussions with LKQ as far back as February 2017.

The Fluvanna Board of Supervisors will meet on April 4 for a regular session at 4 p.m. followed by a 7 p.m. public hearing session on the budget.

The Free Enterprise Forum’s coverage of Fluvanna County is provided by a grant from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS® and by the support of readers like you.

Bryan Rothamel covers Fluvanna County for the Free Enterprise Forum

Photo Credits: Fluvanna County

Fluvanna Supervisors Work Budget & Encourage Economic Development

By. Bryan Rothamel, Field Officer

The local government budget season is nearing its climax. On March 14, the Fluvanna County  Board of Supervisors will meet to pick a tax rate to advertise.  Once advertised, the rate can be reduced but it can not be increased.

BOS FRONT (L-R): Mozell Booker (Vice Chair), Patricia Eager REAR (L-R): Don Weaver, Mike Sheridan (Chair), Tony O'Brien

Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors

The supervisors will meet for a work session at 7 p.m. but expect a long night. This will be the first time the supervisors go line by line to determine what should and should not be in the budget.

The county administrator proposed nearly a three cent increase in real property tax in his budget. Steve Nichols didn’t include any additional money for the schools in his budget.

The School Board unanimously passed a budget that requested an additional $1 million in local funding. The largest portion of the request includes $700,000 for salary increases.

Nichols’ budget also doesn’t any salary increases for the county staff. It does include one additional staff member but the departments requested four new positions.

The county’s budget situation will only get tighter in future years without new development. The proposed LKQ salvage yard is estimated to bring in about $300,000 of tax revenue, the equivalent of a penny of real estate taxes for all land owners.

The supervisors have actively followed staff recommendations to make development easier. Besides the Shovel Ready Sites program passing, the county made a change to collection of the land use back taxes for the Zion Crossroads community planning area.

The old rule was when a property changed zoning, it was out of the land use program. The owner would then have to pay five years of back taxes. The recently passed rule is the landowner can request a zoning change, the zoning change can occur but paying five years worth of taxes is not collected until the use of the land changes.

The problem was previously landowners trying to sell and develop land had to pay for zoning changes plus the five years of taxes before even listed the property for sale. Now the landowner can factor in paying the taxes into the sale of the property. Plus, the “five years of back taxes” may include the new zoning. Commercial land is valued higher than agriculture.

Supervisors also reduced fees to rezone. Applications to rezone now will only cost $1,000. Previously they cost $1,000 plus $50 per acre. If a property owner has multiple parcels to rezone but submits one application, it is still just $1,000.

The next supervisor meeting is the budget work session on March 14. It is shaping up to be a long one, bring snacks if coming. Cookies will probably be available.

The Free Enterprise Forum’s coverage of Fluvanna County is provided by a grant from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS® and by the support of readers like you.

Bryan Rothamel covers Fluvanna County for the Free Enterprise Forum

Photo Credits: Fluvanna County

Business Vitality Sustains Better Communities

FORUM WATCH EDITORIAL

By. Neil Williamson, President

In recent weeks, we have heard several calls to slow economic development and advancement in our community.  Many of these calls are accompanied by concerns of gentrification, income inequality and economic fairness. These calls have manifested themselves in vocal opposition to pro-business policies.  The Free Enterprise Forum believes a flourishing business sector is mission critical to creating a vibrant community; beyond the financial benefit a diverse, successful business community generates a positive, accepting, thriving community.  image

The Charlottesville Regional Chamber of Commerce recently released the 2017 Sales tax data.  This empirical data does not capture all local economic activity but provides an objective metric to the overall health of the economy.

The reality is, using a ten year lens, all of our localities have increased their sales tax base.  The percent increase is largest in those areas which previously had very little retail but all localities see growth in the last decade.

It is into this context, that I read this morning’s Washington Post opinion piece by economic writer Robert SamuelsonThe political consequences of slower growth”.  In his piece, Samuelson defines the import of economic growth:

The role of economic growth in advanced democracies is not mainly the accumulation of more material goods. By any historical norm, even today’s poor are staggeringly wealthy. Economic growth plays a more subtle role. It gives people a sense that they are getting ahead and are in control of their lives. It serves as the social glue that holds us together and counteracts — to some extent — the influences of race, class, religion, ethnicity and geography, which drive us apart. emphasis added-nw

The Free Enterprise Forum believes the same socioeconomic theory works on the local level and has a correlated counter theory.See the source image  The higher the citizen confidence in their local economy regarding opportunity as well as job growth, tensions between often competing factions are reduced.

If however, the political environment highlights the divisions between groups and accentuates an ‘us vs. them’ mentality, then despite economic positives, citizen confidence generally drops and a drop in economic vitality soon follows.

Earlier this month, Charlottesville City Councilor Wes Bellamy was quoted by Charlottesville Tomorrow’s Sean Tubbs chiding an applicant about a requested density increase in the West2nd rezoning:

“Some would say you have made a lot of money in this city and because you have already made so much, maybe you could give one back to us,” Bellamy said.

Later in the month, in a presentation to the Charlottesville’s Housing Summit City Principal Planner Brian Haluska provided an inadvertent counter to Bellamy’s Anti-Profit position:

A developer that does not make a profit is a developer that won’t be around for long

Profit has a place in our economic growth engine.  Absent the opportunity to add value, why would investors put their resources at risk.  Absent cooperation from the localities, market demanded projects (residential and commercial) will be financed and developed ‘by right’ making the well funded vision of localities comprehensive plans nothing but a mirage.

Samuelson’s piece concluded by projecting the influence a declining rate of economic growth has on society:

We should also remember the larger role played by the economy in shaping the nation’s political and social climate. Unless we are able to raise the rate of economic growth — a task whose inherent difficulty ought to be obvious by now — we face an increasingly contentious and politically strained future.

We can expect intensifying competition among Americans (the rich and the poor, the young and the old, cities and states, businesses and governments) for ever-larger shares of the nation’s slow-growing income. We’ll also miss the muffling effect that higher economic growth has on the nation’s other conflicts and grievances.

While I may differ regarding the verbiage “muffling effect”, the sentiment is clear; a community that has economic growth tends to be more cohesive, collaborative, congenial, and accepting.  The community that lacks such economic vitality tends to be more combative, restrictive and protectionist.

The question for our communities is do we want to spend resources fighting for “our” slice of the pie or should we work together to increase the size of the community pie?

Respectfully Submitted,

 

Neil Williamson, President

Neil Williamson is the President of The Free Enterprise Forum, a privately funded public policy organization covering the City of Charlottesville as well as Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, Louisa and  Nelson County.

Photo Credit: housedems.ct.gov

Groundhog Day in Fluvanna?

By Bryan Rothamel, Field Officer

The Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors’ budget calendar begins in earnest when the calendar flips to February. The county administrator will present a budget proposal that will kick off the vast majority of discussion the supervisors will have regarding the fiscal year 2019 budget.

groundhog day gobblers knobPredictions of actions by this, or any, governmental body can be as reliable as Punxsutawney Phil, but there are times that early session decisions truly foreshadow future votes.

The last few years the board has been able to hold the Real Estate tax rate steady. This year the supervisors had a budget work session in December to help steer staff as Steve Nichols, the county administrator, prepares his budget proposal.

Mozell Booker (Fork Union District) and Tony O’Brien (Rivanna District), the two left leaning supervisors, told Nichols they were ok with a slight raise in the tax rate if necessary. Booker even saying a $0.92 per $100 assessed real property rate was ok. Currently the rate is $0.907.

Patricia Eager (Palmyra District) and Don Weaver (Cunningham District), the two right leaning supervisors, advocated for low as possible. Eager even suggesting a decrease in tax rate.

A decrease in the real property rate will be difficult because the county will begin paying for the Zions Crossroad water project and trying to decrease business related taxes to help jump start development in the ZXR area.

The past four years, Mike Sheridan (Columbia District) has been the one to bridge the gap between the two sides. Last year during a work session Sheridan even suggested the $0.907 tax rate where the supervisors ended up.

In an interesting sign during the 2018 organizational meeting, when nominations for chairman started, Booker quickly nominated Sheridan with a second from O’Brien. Booker has advocated multiple times for a roving chairship after she lost the gavel two years ago.

Sheridan, abstaining from the vote, was unanimously elected chairman. Then Eager quickly nominated Booker for vice chair with Weaver seconding. She was elected unanimously, Booker abstaining from the vote.

Such unanimity could be a sign of further cooperation or it could be a sign of lines being drawn with a budget season just ahead.

Nichols will present his budget on February 7 at 7 p.m.

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The Free Enterprise Forum’s coverage of Fluvanna County is provided by a grant from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®and by the support of readers like you.

Bryan Rothamel covers Fluvanna County for the Free Enterprise Forum

Photo Credits: Onwardstate.com

 

Fluvanna Ponders Proactive Rezoning for Economic Development Prospect

By. Bryan Rothamel, Field Officer

The Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors will hear an application to rezone a property in the Zion Crossroads area at the December 20 meeting.  The rezoning was initiated by the Board of Supervisors in hopes of attracting a specific company looking to invest over $8 million in a new facility that would employ 30 to 40 people. The company’s name is not disclosed at this time.

The property is located along Memory Lane (State Route 698), approximately 0.35 miles south of the intersection of Richmond Road (U.S. Route 250). The parcel is within the Rural Residential Planning Area and is adjacent to AG Dillard and near the rear portion of the women’s correctional facility. It used to be part of the Cosner salvage yard.

The Cosner salvage yard use of the property was nonconforming to the zoning of A-1. For the property to become a salvage yard again, it would need to be I-2 plus get a special use permit.

The unnamed company would have to initiate a Special Use Permit (SUP), if the zoning change is approved. At that time, additional details would be released. The I-2 zoning does not allow a salvage yard by right but is a permitted use with SUP.

A county official declined to release any other information on the company other than the pictures that were part of the presentation slated for the meeting.  The pictures depict a much different salvage yard than how Cosner operated. The pictures show a cemented yard of cars and a large warehouse.Recycled-green-auto-parts-info-graphic-3

The new term of art for salvage yards is “Automotive Recycling” [See infographic to the right]. The car recycling Industry is the 16th largest in the United States, contributing $25 billion per year to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The US automotive recycling industry employs around 100,000 people and earns around $25 billion a year. Nationally, there are around 7,000 vehicle recycling facilities.

During the Planning Commission meeting, officials said the company brings in cars through the warehouse for inspection then stores the cars in the parking area. Spare parts are shipped to interested buyers and there could be some local buyers. The company would pay taxes including machinery and tools.

The Planning Commission recommended denial of the rezoning on a 3-1-1 after two failed motions. First, the PC had a motion to approve that failed to get a second. Then, there was a motion to defer that did not get a second. A motion to recommend denial received a second but failed on a 2-2-1 vote. Shortly there after a motion to reconsider.

The Planning Commission had issues with the I-2 zoning in the rural planning area. The property is next to the community planning area and next to I-1 zoned property.

PC members at first started considering the economic development portion of the rezoning but then retreated to only considering the question, “Should this property be zoned I-2 on its own merits?”

One suggestion was rezoning on the possibility the zoning reverts back to A-1 if the interested company backs out of the arrangement. County officials said without the rezoning, the business would move on. Tony O’Brien (Rivanna District), the Board of Supervisors liaison to the commission, said there is little concern about the company’s intentions.

The Board of Supervisors will take up the issue at the 7 p.m. session on December 20.

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The Free Enterprise Forum’s coverage of Fluvanna County is provided by a grant from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®and by the support of readers like you.

Bryan Rothamel covers Fluvanna County for the Free Enterprise Forum

Photo Credits: Automotive Recyclers Association

Fluvanna Primes The New Business Pump

By. Bryan Rothamel, Field Officer

Fluvanna County is trying to be more shovel ready.

The Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors approved transferring $35,000 to start the Fluvanna Shovel Ready Sites Program (FSRSP). The program is set up to help Zion Crossroad area landowners move sites up the development tier.

Currently the county has no properties in the lowest of a five tier grading scale. The FSRSP will help move properties higher up the scale.

“The objective is to get as close as possible to tier five,” said economic development coordinator Jason Smith.

Steve Nichols

Staff stressed the program is assist landowners wanting to move closer to development.

“The program is not to tell citizens what to do with their property,” said Steve Nichols, county administrator.

The program would be administrated by the Fluvanna Economic Development Authority. The EDA and staff recommended a grant based program. The supervisors approved an interest free loan program to be repaid paid back after land use changed.

“There are a lot of places you can put shovel ready sites, but I think we all agree Zion Crossroads makes a lot of sense,” said Tony O’Brien (Rivanna District). O’Brien noted being briefed on a report that Virginia was losing out to development because of lack of shovel ready sites.

Also at the November 15 meeting, supervisors appropriated an additional $54,000 to construct the Farm Heritage Museum to be placed at Pleasant Grove, near the farm house.

The project includes over $250,000 from the funds raised and secured by the Fluvanna Historical Society. The historical society also pledged to give $5,000 over five years to help offset the $54,000 the county is outlaying.

The entire project is estimated at $340,000. The facility will be owned by the county. The bid for construction was awarded to Fuog/InterBuild. The company estimates it will take eight weeks to complete after building permit is issued.

Don Weaver (Cunningham District) was the lone vote against the county contributing $54,000 to complete the project. The county already gave $15,000 to complete site work.

“Should the tax payers pick up the tab,” asked Weaver.

Mozell Booker (Fork Union District) noted how much money was raised from resident and business donations. “That’s telling me there is community support,” said Booker.

Weaver voted with the majority to award the bid and accept funding from the historical society.

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The Free Enterprise Forum’s coverage of Fluvanna County is provided by a grant from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®and by the support of readers like you.

Bryan Rothamel covers Fluvanna County for the Free Enterprise Forum

Photo Credits: Fluvanna County

Fluvanna Voters Return Incumbent Supervisors

By. Bryan Rothamel, Field Officer

The next two years of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors will look just like they do now.  Incumbents Tony O’Brien, Mike Sheridan and Don Weaver all won re-election on November 7.
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The Rivanna District was the only contested race of the three with O’Brien winning almost 60 percent of the vote. He defeated challenger Darrell Byers.
“I think the election was a reflection of educated voters who understand that the county’s continued need to balance the tax base through economic development and recognize that we need to provide competitive cores services to thrive,” said O’Brien in an emailed statement.
“The voter also recognized that both the county administration and the [Board of Supervisors] are focused and committed to resolving these challenges while always striving for transparent and accountable fiscal stewardship.”

Supervisor Don Weaver

Sheridan (Columbia District) and Weaver (Cunningham District) each carried over 95 percent of the vote in their respective districts.  For Sheridan and O’Brien, this will be their second term. Weaver has served 28 years. This upcoming term he will embark on a third decade in office.
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The board is set to have continuity for the next two years. While terms are four years long, Patricia Eager (Palmyra District) and Mozell Booker (Fork Union District) have two years remaining on each of their terms.

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The Free Enterprise Forum’s coverage of Fluvanna County is provided by a grant from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®and by the support of readers like you.

Bryan Rothamel covers Fluvanna County for the Free Enterprise Forum

Fluvanna Water Project Out To Bid

By. Bryan Rothamel, Field Officer

turn on waterThey said the day would never come.

On November 1st, 2017, Fluvanna County put the Zion Crossroads water and sewer project out to bid.

Decades of discussion have culminated in the supervisors advertising for bid the $11.9 million project.

The request for bid will be done in three parts. The pipes, the mechanical and the water tower are all in separate requests in hops of getting better bids by companies that would otherwise have to subcontract.

After the supervisors completed a series of motions, the room applauded as the long chapter of Fluvanna politics is nearing a close. The project is expected to take 18 months to construct.

Economic Development?  Supervisors also initiated a rezoning process for an undisclosed business trying to relocate in the Zion Crossroads area. The project would be an investment of $8 to $10 million and bring about 40 jobs to the county. The business would be disclosed once the public hearings occur.

The property is currently zoned agricultural and is seeking an industrial zoning. The county is also working with the business to get a hookup to the aforementioned water project once water is flowing.

In other water news, after a closed meeting, the supervisors pledged $5,000 to Caroline County for proposed legal advice on fighting Aqua America’s proposed rate increases. Lake Monticello is served by Aqua. Caroline County has several subdivisions also served by Aqua, estimated at 30 percent of its population.

Caroline reached out to other home owners associations and locality governments for assistance in teaming together to fight against Aqua’s request. Caroline estimated the cost of legal advice and State Corporation Commission expert help at over $75,000.

Other presentations during the November 1st  meeting included one from an official from Fluvanna Girls Softball League (FGSL). FGSL wanted the county to loan $25,000 to the private organization to field improvements at the Carysbrook field. Work included leveling the infield and outfield as well as replacing the backstop and adding an outfield fence.

The proposed loan was $25,000 paid over five years with 2 percent interest. Unfortunately, supervisors were briefed by the county attorney they have no legal authority to loan money to FGSL, a private organization. Because Carysbrook is county property, the county could construct the requested work and FGSL can voluntarily contribute to the county’s coffers.

Chris Fairchild, FGSL official, said even if the supervisors said they didn’t want to be paid back, FGSL wants to pay for the improvements. Supervisors and the parks and recreation department will work with FGSL to get work scheduled as previously planned.

Over the course of the last 15 years, FGSL has invested $168,000 in field improvements including construction of dugouts and concession stand.

Supervisors were briefed on preliminary budget projections of the Fluvanna County Public Schools system. Chuck Winkler, superintendent, is projecting a request of $2.2 million over last year’s budget.

That estimate included standards of quality changes that are partially funded by the state. He included the entire figure but noted if the state implemented, it would have a huge state budget implication. He said the likelihood of being passed was slim, but included it as a precaution.

Also in Winkler’s increase were pay raises and increase in health care costs. He also had additional money for technology improvements. He noted that if technology was funded again by Capital Improvement funds, it lowers the county’s per pupil spending.

The supervisors will next meet on November 15 at 7 p.m.

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The Free Enterprise Forum’s coverage of Fluvanna County is provided by a grant from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®and by the support of readers like you.

Bryan Rothamel covers Fluvanna County for the Free Enterprise Forum

Who Will Decide Election 2017?

By. Neil Williamson, PresidentBallot Box

One day left.  Mercifully.

Citizens and candidates alike look forward to the end of the election season. As one local incumbent described the process, “There’s two ways to run, unopposed or scared”.

Unfortunately, this election we have many seats running unopposed. This is not an indictment of the candidates running, The Free Enterprise Forum strongly believes contested races make better candidates. Simply put contested elections make candidates explain and defend their positions thus making the public better informed and generates better policy after the election.

johnny RaincloudNot to be ‘Johnny Raincloud’ but the weather report for Election Day 2017 looks pretty gloomy; this generally suppresses voter participation.

By virtue of reading this post, you tend to be one of the more engaged community members.  By now, you likely know who is running for local office in your locality.  Hopefully, you know where they stand on issues that are important to you and you have selected the candidate that best represents your views.

Here in Virginia we like elections so much we hold them every year.  This year is an “off-year” election meaning there are no Federal offices on the ballot but there is a gubernatorial race. By means of contrast the 2016 presidential election year saw 72.05% statewide voter turnout compared with the last “off” year the 2013 Gubernatorial election turnout of 43.0%.

Based on early absentee voting and historical averages, the Free Enterprise Forum anticipates the 2017 statewide election turnout to hover near 40%.  Locally, the lack of multiple contested races may hinder turnout. We do not believe it will exceed 50%.

virginia voter turnout photo credit Rassmuten

Credit: Rassumsen Reports

It is not a leap to predict roughly half of registered voters likely will not vote this cycle.  Therefore, regardless of the locality, this year’s campaign will come down to which campaign motivates their voters to show up at the polls.

Get Out The Vote, known in the ‘biz’ as “GOTV”, campaigns have been underway by the major parties, and special interest groups, for a number of weeks.  Likely voters are being contacted via mail, phone, and in person by party operatives and candidates.  Historically, this type of “ground game” can make the difference.  Over the years, we have seen the amount of shoe leather candidates put into the campaign can have a higher return than signs and advertising in many of the local races.

Every vote matters as evidenced by several recent close elections.  In the 2013 Samuel Miller District Race in Albemarle County, Liz Palmer on a Board of Supervisors contest by 874 votes. The same year, Jim Frydl  won his Greene County Supervisor race by 33 votes. In 2011, Supervisor Davis Lamb won his Ruckersville seat by just 15 votes (with 41 votes going to a candidate who had dropped out of the race).

Typically turnout elections favor those candidates with well defined and energized constituencies.  While there are a multiplicity of local constituencies with varying levels of organization, the question of election day is which of these constituencies are both motivated and energized.  Put succinctly, what half will show up?Badge

The Free Enterprise Forum is a non partisan public policy organization, as such we embrace elections as the political marketplace for ideas.  We sincerely thank ALL the candidates who are making the sacrifice to run for public office.  We strongly encourage everyone to make your voice heard by voting.

The candidates have done their job by running now it is up to you – Polls will be open Tuesday from 6 am to 7 pm.—VOTE

If you do not know where you vote, click here for your polling place.

Respectfully Submitted,

Neil Williamson, President

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20070731williamson Neil Williamson is the President of The Free Enterprise Forum, a privately funded non partisan public policy organization covering the City of Charlottesville as well as Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, Louisa and  Nelson County.  For more information visit the website www.freeenterpriseforum.org

 

Photo Credit: http://dracotempest.deviantart.com/art/Johnny-Raincloud-609304000